Expected Value (EV) Calculator
Calculate the exact monetary Expected Value (EV) of any poker decision. Includes Standard EV for calls/bets and Semi-Bluff EV with Fold Equity modeling.
Decision Parameters
BAYESIAN EV MODELChips in the pot before your contemplated action.
Amount you are putting into the pot for this decision.
Your estimated equity against your opponent's calling range.
Positive expectation play. This decision generates net profit on average over repeating game states.
The Sharp's Guide to Expected Value in Poker
Expected Value (EV) is the absolute cornerstone of winning poker. Every decision at the table either adds chips to your long-term bankroll (+EV) or bleeds them away (-EV). You cannot control whether the turn card will fall in your favor on a single hand, but you have complete control over making positive expectation bets.
When bluffing, Fold Equity acts as a massive financial multiplier. By forcing your opponent to fold even 35% of the time with a half-pot bet, you win the uncontested pot immediately. When combined with backup equity from a drawing hand (a semi-bluff), even marginal hands transform into highly profitable +EV opportunities.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does +EV mean in poker? ▼
+EV means Positive Expected Value. It indicates that if you repeat this exact decision hundreds of times under identical conditions, you will make money on average, regardless of the single-hand result.
How is Standard EV calculated? ▼
EV = (Probability of Winning × Amount Won) − (Probability of Losing × Amount Bet). If the resulting number is greater than zero, the action is profitable.
What is Fold Equity? ▼
Fold equity is the additional value gained from the likelihood that your opponent will fold to your bet or raise, granting you the pot without needing to show the best hand.
What is the Break-Even bluff percentage? ▼
For a pure bluff (zero showdown equity), your break-even fold percentage is: Bet / (Pot + Bet). For example, a half-pot bluff ($50 into $100) requires a 33.3% fold frequency to break even.
Why should I make +EV calls if I might lose my whole stack? ▼
In cash games, taking +EV lines maximizes the growth rate of your bankroll. As long as your bankroll management is disciplined (typically 30–50 buy-ins), individual variance will wash out over thousands of hands.
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